This posting presents how to do forecasting with moving average method using excel modeling with criterion of Mean Square error and varying smoothing constant.

Data covering the most recent 30 days are given in the following table for the price per gallon of regular gasoline at a local station. __________________________________________ Day Price Day Price 1 2.53 16 2.46 2 2.35 17 2.60 3 1.91 18 2.10 4 2.20 19 2.01 5 1.77 20 2.14 6 3.26 21 2.03 7 1.63 22 2.68 8 2.73 23 2.59 9 2.41 24 2.99 10 2.72 25 2.94 11 2.87 26 1.77 12 1.49 27 2.62 13 2.92 2... click for more

This posting presents different methods of forecasting in Excel like Moving Average, Exponential smoothing - Holt Winters etc

Coastal Fuel Oil is a distributor of fuel oil products in the Northeast. It contracts with shippers for deliveries of home heating oil and distributes product in tis own trucks. Since its storage capacity is limited, and purchasing storage for fuel oil it cannot store itself is expensive, accurate demand forecast are valuable. Monthly data covering the past 10 years are given in the following table: a. Develop an appropriate forecast using a moving average approach. b. Develop an appropriate forecast using a simple exponential smoothing approach. c. Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing with trend (Holt's method.) d. Develop an appropriate forecast using ex... click for more

Excel Modeling

*Please show all work, use excel and identify the value and units measured. (Notes for my own Use: Ch10:2) Location Problem with Two Sites. Oliveira Office Supply has a large retail system consisting of 12 stores spread around the country, often in direct competition with Kilroy. However, managers at Oliveira have decided to use two national distribution centers. When Oliveira's stores are mapped on the same grid as Kilroy's, the store locations occur at the coordinates listed in the following table. There is also data to indicate how many trips are made annually to each store. a. find the optimal location for Oliveira's two distribution centers. b. What is the optimal value of ... click for more

Excel Modeling:

*Please show all work, use excel and identify the value and units measured. (Notes for my own Use: Ch10,9) Ordering fuels. Three liquid fuels are stored in tanks for use in a blending process. Each fuel is characterized by a demand rate, a fixed replenishment cost, and a unit cost. Inventory carrying costs are assessed at the rate of 12% per year. In order to save money on insurance rates, the operating policy is to limit the average value of stock on hand to no more than $7,500.00 ______________________________ Fuel Demand Fixed Cost Unit Cost 1 1,000/year $100 $50 2 250/year $75 ... click for more

Ethanol Economics

Brazilian ethanol producers (who make ethanol from sugarcane) have lower production costs than U.S. producers. Indeed, even though it costs 16 cents per gallon to transport ethanol from Brazil to the United States, which also imposes and import tariff of nearly 60 cents per gallon on Brazilian ethanol, the United States still imports about 60 million gallons of ethanol per year from Brazil. If congress really cares about protecting the environment and reducing our reliance on foreign crude oil, why do you suppose we have a large import tariff on ethanol? If imports of Brazilian ethanol begin to rise sharply in the future, what do you predict will happen to the size of the import tariff ... click for more